They say the mining boom will be unending, they say migration will boost the population, that interest rates will stay low, that property "value" will continue to appreciate forever, that "first home buyers should get in now or be locked out" and that theres no problem in the Australian housing supply. Wrong wrong a thousand times fucking WRONG!!!!!!!!

But its not a simple thing. Theres many factors influencing the issue. I have read many forum debates and spoken to many people on the issue and my conclusion regarding the average level of awareness of the people is that nobody knows shit from clay. Except me and an enlightened few.

Thing is there are many positive factors one can point to that in isolation of the negative factors, makes for a compelling positivist argument. However with all good and bad factors takin into weighed consideration its likely that a crash will happen sometime soon one of these days and that when it does, the majority of Aussies will be up that creek that everyone talks about without a paddle. Because most everyone in Australia has their money filled up in the housing market and when the market sinks that money will go away forever.

First some positive stuff: Australia has the land mass of the united states and a population of a small chinese city. Australia has lots of empty unpopulated land that contains resources such as artesian water and minerals ranging from gold to uranium to coal to iron ore. China and India want this stuff and pay Australia for it. Australia's small population benefits enormously from this trade in a similar way to the arabs and their oil. In summary its the huge mungus land mass coupled with the tiny population that makes Australia a nice prosperous spacious place to live. Try Bangladesh or similar and see what I mean. We got it goin on down under ohh yeahh, biatcH!

Second compelling point about how Australia sounds a good place to buy property is the comparison of Aussie housing prices with other nations. Australia is such a great place to live, no war no disease (Except lifestyle diseas diabetes herpes etc) No lack of quality food or good doctors and hospitals if you need a major operation where you gonna go Thailand or Aussie? Yeh you got it. Plus when you flush the toilet in Australia it just works and there are no open sewers or leppers begging on the dusty streets. Got the picture? Australia is some kind of arrid paradise, so correspondingly the price to live here ought to be high right? Right. So to put things in perspective you ought to have to pay more bitchin cash money to purchase the same property type in Australia than say China. You ought to have to pay alot more for that, and slightly more than say New Zealand or Scotland. Its the little things that count ie, 1 in 4 people in Shenzhen in Southern China near Hong Kong: Have Hepatitis! In Australia 1 in 500 people have hepatitis. Stuff like that. All this influences the value of the houses in the community. Its a globalised markert and we can and will compare living standards in different countries to determine appropriate housing values. Trouble is while Australia is the best country in the world, currently we are sittin on the tail end of a huge mungus credit free flow speculation driven housing market price appreciation and this means the fundamental question now becomes: Given that Australia is the best place to live in this globalised world, and given that that makes property here valuable, and also considering the ten long years of coupounding price growth to the current high levels, how much of the current price is fair value in a global context and how much froth on the top is none other than empty speculative inflation? Thats the fuckin question my friend.

Then their are the unknowns of a less critical nature but still damn important. Ie, the current policy supports negative gearing which encourages price appreciation. What if the future Aussie government decides to change the policy to something like Germany or Switzerland where speculation driven property price appreciation is discouraged by the policy they have long adhered to? I mean in Germany you have to hold on to property for 10 years before you can sell it and not pay crippling tax. (Hitler made that rule and it still sticks to this day) & dont neglect to note that the Swiss are the smart bastards who really know money since everyone has heard of the "Swiss Bank Account", so why doesnt Australia have a policy on property like the Swiss or Germans? Because we are perhaps a less sophisticated society? I dont know. These countries are old, Australia is new. That may be it. Its better to live and work in Australia than many Western nations though: Work in Italy and be prepared to fail since you pay all your profits to the Mafia so they dont put a horses severed head in your bed. Get it? Australia is the place to be, but still the prices are wayyyyy too high.

The recent first home buyers lulled into the market by first home owners grants being at a record where by in the state of Victoria 30 something thousand $ was up for grabs for new apartments or rural building. Shit like that incentivised the last suckers into the Ponzi scheme to be the fall guys lead into place to take the hit when the value gets wiped out in the coming crashola. comment discuss at australia debt.org

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